Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
